Population: The Ultimate Weapon, Vietnam and the New World Order

Hey, it’s him again. Not economic recession, not the clashes of superpowers, and not even the rapid development of AI, but population aging is the biggest ticking time bomb that nations are facing.

Japan and South Korea have almost accepted defeat in the battle against aging. China is also entering this cycle, with its birth rate dropping so sharply that no matter what they do, it is hard to reverse. They are issuing a series of policies to revive their population, but at the same time, they are under all kinds of pressure from both inside and outside. Especially, the restrictions that Trump is about to place on China could derail their development for many years to come.

Vietnam has a huge advantage, but it cannot simply enjoy this advantage without solving the population equation. The government has taken bold steps, from Decree 166 supporting costs for education students, to measures limiting alcohol, to banning stimulants: all aimed at improving the quality of the population. And the most recent key move: free tuition for primary to high school students nationwide. They are doing everything to not only increase the population, but also create a foundation for the next generation to have a better education.

The question is, will these measures be enough to extend the golden population period and seize opportunities in the new world order?

Trump: Peace or a Unipolar Order?

The peaceful world that Trump wants to create is not a balanced one, but a world where only America is great, while other countries should just remain average. By weakening rivals, keeping allies dependent, and controlling the balance of conflict, the US will act as the ultimate referee: when countries fight, the US will intervene, but in a way that benefits the US.

With this strategy, in his next term, Trump will likely:

• Tighten pressure on China to limit its rise
• Restrict Europe to maintain the US upper hand
• Keep Russia in a state of being neither too strong nor too weak to control the global political situation
• Win over Canada and Mexico, turning North America into an exclusive US economic influence zone

In that context, the US will need an alternative manufacturing hub to replace China, and Vietnam is the most promising candidate. This could be the main driver boosting Vietnam’s strong development in the coming years: provided we seize the opportunity.

Market Upgrade and Capital Restructuring

Everyone knows that real estate prices need to decrease, but if they fall too quickly, the economy could suffer a major shock. Currently, credit in Vietnam depends heavily on real estate. If property prices plunge abruptly, market-wide purchasing power will decline, businesses will struggle, and the economy will slow down.

The only way out is upgrading the stock market to attract foreign capital. When foreign money flows into stocks, businesses can easily raise capital without having to borrow against real estate. Gradually, the role of real estate in the credit system will decrease, helping the property market cool down without causing a shock.

This is exactly what policymakers are aiming for. If done well, Vietnam can maintain its young population advantage, avoiding the trap that China is currently stuck in.

North-South Expressway and the Formation of New Urban Areas

To encourage childbearing, the housing issue must be solved first. A young generation with stable housing will feel secure enough to marry and have children.

With the development of the North-South high-speed railway, a series of new urban areas will form along the route. Along with this is the development of social housing, giving the working class the opportunity to own homes at more reasonable prices. If implemented successfully, this will be a crucial factor in keeping Vietnam’s population young and abundant.

If we miss this phase, we might fall into the same situation as China today: growing old before getting rich, and by the time we realize it, it will be too late.

In the next few years, “social housing” will be a phrase constantly mentioned in the media. From an investment perspective, perhaps infrastructure development companies are the ones to watch rather than traditional real estate businesses.

Our Actions

So, amidst all these changes, what can we draw from this?

• Instead of investing in real estate companies, pay attention to infrastructure development and construction firms
• Transportation and logistics services will grow strongly, as the economy needs a more resilient supply chain system
• Manufacturing companies could rise, as the US is looking for a partner to replace China
• The stock market will boom, thanks to foreign capital flowing in when Vietnam’s market is upgraded

In short, a great opportunity is opening up, but it comes with significant challenges. Listen to him, profit or loss is your own responsibility. Having read this far, are you comfortable having a daughter yet, beautiful?

❤️ cowriter aethery